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2020 Vision: Election Implausible

Statistically speaking, without digging into the details of the claims of voter fraud, the 2020 election results published thus far are completely implausible. They buck every trend in American politics and violate the standards by which we measure the corruption of foreign elections. The 73 million Americans who voted for President Donald Trump are right to be concerned that this election was stolen from them.

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By The Numbers

In the United States, presidential elections rarely draw out more than 60% of the eligible adult population. In this election we are approaching 68% of eligible adults in the United States–numbers unseen in 120 years. According to the Census Bureau, as of the 2018 midterm election, there were approximately 249.5 million adults in the United States and the eligible citizen population was 228.8 million. Of these, again in 2018, 153 million were registered to vote (down from peak voter registration in the United States of 157.6 in 2016). Voter registration tends to rise prior to presidential elections and decline until the next presidential election.

Finding up-to-date voter registration numbers for 2020 is difficult with several states burying their not yet up-to-date numbers. There were 153 million registered voters in 2018 (Census Bureau) and 157.6 million in 2016, according to Pew Research. Thus far about 152 million votes have been counted. Even if there are 160 million registered voters, that puts the national turnout of registered voters at 95%, with the turnout of eligible adult citizens is at 66% thus far. These are historic numbers, the highest in 120 years. The United States has not seen voter turnout of eligible citizens over 60% since the 1960s. Using slightly different numbers, the Washington Post, which also notes the historic turnout, about which they are ecstatic rather than suspicious, the 2016 turnout was 60.1% and 2008 was 61.6%. Either way, the turnout is still higher than plausible. Of course, the WaPo chose not to address the fact that we are approaching 100% turnout of registered voters. Turnout of registered voters peaked at 89.8% in 2008…

This was a contentious election, and it is certainly possible and even plausible that we might reach turnout levels comparable to other contentious elections. But to exceed them significantly and by such a margin? Under these circumstances, a full investigation of election practices is certainly warranted. My numbers are sound, but are admittedly open to interpretation and correction. Still, nearly 100% turnout of registered voters? That just does not happen in the United States. We need to know that this election and its result were legitimate. If that proves to be the case, we can move on. If not, then illegal ballots must be invalidated and the President restored to his election night win.

Historical Trends

When a sitting President gains support during their first term, when he earns more votes for reelection than he did for his initial election; he is easily reelected. In every election in the last 50 years, every President who gained support and received a greater number of votes for their reelection than for their initial election successfully won reelection. Every president who saw a decline in support from their initial election to their bid for reelection was defeated, with the singular exception of Barack Obama whose support declined 3.5 million votes from his initial election in 2008 to his reelection in 2012. Nevertheless, Republicans gained only one million votes from 2008 to 2012 which prevented them from defeating President Obama.

Former Vice President Joe Biden gives a premature election victory speech.

In 2016, nearly 63 million Americans voted for Donald Trump and nearly 10 million more have voted for him in 2020. About 66 million Americans voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and supposedly 11 million more voters have turned out in 2020? For a candidate about whom no one is excited? Polls have shown fully 30% of Democrat voters were voting against Donald Trump, not for former Vice President Joe Biden. We are expected to believe those who hate Donald Trump turnout in greater numbers than those who love him? That is truly unbelievable.

In 2012 President Obama was reelected, the Democrats gained seats in the Senate (2) and House of Representatives (8). In 2004 President George W. Bush was reelected and the GOP gained seats in the Senate (4) and House (3). In 1996, Bill Clinton prevailed in a three-way race. It is not surprising, then that the Congressional races were split as well with the Democrats gaining two seats in the House but losing two seats in the Senate; the latter due to the shifting voting patterns in the South wherein the GOP gained seats in Alabama and Arkansas. Nevertheless, for the GOP to lose not a single state legislative house, to gain significantly in the House of Representatives (8 seats so far) and to retain critical seats in the Senate, but not win the Presidency? That is very improbable. The Senate will come down to two runoff elections in Georgia where the GOP can retain the Senate by winning just one of the two seats.

Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute wrote recently on the inaccuracy of polls and the implausibility of Joe Biden’s win. It has been noted by Richard Baris of Big Data Poll that Joe Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama everywhere except in the four cities: Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Locations where implausibly high numbers of votes were recorded. In Philadelphia alone nearly 700,000 ballots were counted out of sight of Republican poll watchers in the early hours of Wednesday morning after the election. Curiously, about the size of President Trump’s election night margin of victory.

Election Implausible

At this point, we have nearly reached the 153 million registered voters reported by the Census Bureau in 2018 and we are fast approaching the 157 million registered voters reported for 2016. We are to believe that nearly every registered voter voted? When recent registered voter turnout has not exceeded 90%? This with election results that defy all historical trends? This election is highly implausible.

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