As the 2018 Midterms approach, intense speculation continues about which Party will win the Fall elections. For months the Press and the Democrats have speculated that there would be a Blue Wave of Democrat victories that would sweep the nation. Recent polling, however, may well indicate otherwise.
Since Eisenhower, the television era, the President’s party has lost seats in the first Midterm election all but once. That once was under Bush 43 in the wake of 9/11. That was a unique election that produced that unique result.
President Clinton’s Party lost over 50 seats and control of the Houses and President Obama’s Party lost 63 and control of the House. So, what will happen this Fall?
Historically, voters start making up their minds in May and June. If that is true this year, it is significant that the Generic Congressional poll continues to tighten. Over the last several months the Democrat lead has shrunk. Now there is a poll from Reuters that says the Republicans have a 6% lead.
Is that the result of the good economy and positive foreign policy signs? Is it a result of the Democrats being too negative or their lurch to the far Left? Only time will tell.
November is still far away. Robert Mueller will still have his say. The Inspector General’s Report will come out before that, however, and it will likely hurt the Democrats even more.
In the Divided Era of volatile and angry voters no one can say for sure.
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