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Why Trump’s Steady Polling Numbers Continue

The Wall Street Journal and NBC News poll of “registered” voters finds Trump’s approval rating holding “remarkably stable” in the days following the conviction of former campaign Chairman Paul Manafort and the plea deal involving his onetime personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.

Why is that happening? and what does that mean for the Midterms?

1. The country is so intensely divided that, much like during the Obama presidency, 30% will support their party almost regardless of the circumstance. That makes is hard for any executive to get to 55% approval but provides a floor of support as well.

Beyond that . . .

2. The attacks on Trump’s actually are INCREASING his support among many because they see the more recent attacks not as revealing anything but, instead, a continuation of (a) the attacks upon him (and them) since day one and/or (b) evidence of more obstruction from the Establishment.

3. Mueller’s actions, considered quite biased by some, have already been baked in the numbers, therefore

4. It likely that Mueller will have much have an impact the rest of the way to the Midterms given Trump did not commit any crime related to Russia (Mueller would have charged Cohen/Manafort or Papadopolous if there was such a crime but he couldn’t); and

5. Republicans still have time to seize the momentum but need to get their 2019 agenda in front of voters.

 

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