The Economic Good News Is Lifting Republicans Politically

The U.S. economy is humming along. The numbers say it all:

• U.S. Payrolls Rise 223,000; Jobless Rate Matches 48-Year Low

• “The number of employed Americans, 155,474,000, has broken another record — for the ninth time since President Trump took office, in fact.”

• “Black unemployment fell sharply to 5.9 percent, beating out the 6.6 percent record low that was set a month earlier.”

The timing of all of that bodes well for the Republican Congress.

At the start of the year, most polls showed the Democrats with a commanding leading – as much as 18% – in the Generic Congressional Ballot, i.e. are you inclined to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress this Fall. The May 30th Rasmussen Generic Congressional Ballot, however, now has the race at 43% for Democrats and 42% for Republicans – a statistical tie.

Historically, voters start making up their minds for the Fall in June of an Election year. In the digital age, volatility may well be greater and decisions delayed. Also, there are two large shoes to drop before Election Day – The Inspectors General’s Report on the FBI mishandling of the Clinton investigation and the Mueller Report. That IG report will hit in a couple of weeks and should hurt the Democrats – considerably. The Mueller Report – date unknown – likely will be a negative for Republicans given Mueller’s animus.

In other words, we still have a way to go. The economic news, however, can’t be spun other than as good for workers’ paychecks and good for Republicans politically.