In my most recent article I spoke of how in several critical races in the 2022 Midterms the Trump magic did not seem to be effective. I also spoke of the desire on the part of many Americans not to repeat in 2024 the 2020 election line up, although this looks to be somewhat inevitable. Here I will explore why Donald Trump must be the GOP nominee in 2024.
Trump vs Trumpism
It has been noted of late that there is a certain personality cult associated with Donald Trump. The left decries the way in which some of his supporters seem to be utterly incapable of escaping his orbit. Curious that no one had a problem with the cult-like devotion shown Barack Obama by many of his supporters… This criticism is especially comical coming from the woke hive mind wherein each individual is incapable of thinking for themselves and they merely parrot one another. The fact is, most Trump supporters actually support Trumpism (his policies) not the man himself. Trumpism is not actually an ideology but it is a clever way to encompass both former President Trump’s policies and his principals in approaching the issues. Donald Trump championed a working class populism that when later married to conservative populism established a new and unique approach to US politics. Novel in the modern era is the idea of an anti-establishment candidate out to struggle for average people against a political elite increasingly disconnected from reality and the concerns of average people.
His approach involves taking popular stands on the issues, almost all of his main positions had broad popular support, and then defending those positions from the media and elites. When the media and elites hit back to attack those who agree with Trump, he becomes the champion of these “under dog” average people. How the vast majority of Americans are an “under dog” and the sad circumstances that led to such a ridiculous notion are quite another story all together. When Matt Gaetz, known for being quite far to the right, says the 2024 nominee has to be Donald Trump, one wishes to recoil. Certainly, he must be wrong on this matter? But then we hear former Speaker Paul Ryan parrot the same sentiment and the reality becomes clear: Gaetz is right.
Political elites like Paul Ryan don’t just want Trump gone personally, they want Trumpism gone. Ryan and the old guard want to return to the “good old days” when the establishment ran the GOP. Back when the GOP could not offer effective opposition, back when the party was extremely disconnected from its base, when corruption reigned. The old GOP had not won a non-incumbent presidential race since 1988, and then only on Reagan’s coat tails. In fact, the business as usual Republicans have never really won an election on their own. It was always a candidate with popular appeal like Eisenhower, Nixon, or Reagan who would drag the party over the finish line kicking and screaming. The old GOP is defeated and confident that it belongs in the minority as merely a loyal opposition. It was Donald Trump who brought the will to fight back against the media and the left’s narrative.
Unfortunately, if the GOP were to nominate anyone other than Donald Trump in 2024 it will mean an end to Trumpism. The party will quickly abandon everything good about Trump’s approach and embrace everything that made them the minority party. Except this time, it is not the old Democrats they will be facing but the woke mob. The neo-Marxist, neo-Maoist left is trying to suppress free speech, bully (including with actual violence) their opposition, and use the government to persecute their political opponents. Although persecuting political opponents is nothing new to the Democrats (and Nixon to be fair) as Ted Cruz catalogues in his new book: Justice Corrupted. This is not the time for week kneed opposition. This is time for full throated, intense, and staunch opposition. It is time for a gallop not a gentle trot.
It is easy to feel demoralized in the face of the current election results. Indeed, several GOP candidates under performed. It is also true that in many cases these candidates were endorsed by Donald Trump. As Trump himself has noted, so far, 216 of his endorsees have won and only sixteen have lost. While those losses are serious, a senate seat in Pennsylvania, possibly a senate seat in Georgia, and several governorships. In fact, the GOP win in the House of Representatives is nothing to laugh at or dismiss. A GOP that actually investigates the administration’s corruption, the President’s personal corruption, and strongly opposes wasteful spending will earn points for the GOP in the future. Many businesses from Meta to Amazon did their best to maintain the pretense that everything is humming alone fine in order to avoid influencing the midterms. But now, the layoffs and downsizing will begin. The realities of this recession will be upon us. Our frustrations are only just beginning. All of this bodes well for the next election if the GOP continues in the Trump vein.
The media, political elites, and the woke left will stop at nothing to demoralize their opposition. They know that if Trump himself falls, Trumpism falls with him. They have done everything they can from the psychotic Russia Collusion story to the fake impeachment, to their fantasies about January 6th to demonize Trump and his supporters. None of this has worked, that is the real story of 2022. The America First movement is strong and still moving along. The Democrats may not have done as badly as expected, but that is hardly a victory. Losing a horse race by a head is certainly better than losing by a lap, but it is a loss nonetheless. Just because the Democrats did not bleed out from their wounds does not mean they are healthy and ready for battle.
Same Candidates Different Outcome?
On only five occasions in American history have the same two candidates faced one another in two successive presidential races. Since the Democrats really don’t have any other viable candidates, they will have to go with Biden unless he is completely incapable of running. It is unlikely that any other Democrat candidate will be able to defeat Trump in any event. Biden is just as unpopular as Trump even though Biden has the media’s adoration and Trump its ire. So, essentially, all things are equal looking to the next presidential race. Given the results of the midterms, Trump has a slight advantage going into the next race.
In 1796 and 1800 John Adams and Thomas Jefferson both faced off, and Jefferson won the second round after losing the first. In 1824 and 1828 Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams likewise faced off and Jackson won the second round. In 1888 incumbent President Grover Cleveland faced off against Benjamin Harrison and lost, but came back to win the race in 1892. In these three races, the candidate who had lost but remained popular came back to win the second round. In the remaining two cases the same candidate won twice, but it is important to note that in both instances, William McKinley versus William Jennings Bryan in 1896 and 1900, and Dwight D. “Ike” Eisenhower versus Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956, the nominee who lost twice (Bryan and Stevenson) had never won a presidential election. Stevenson was just a name to place on the ballot in a presidential race the Democrats knew they could not win. There is no special reason to think Donald Trump would not repeat the victory of Grover Cleveland and hold two non-consecutive terms.
All we have to do to win this struggle is stand firm. It seems simplistic but anyone who knows game theory understands that we are in an infinite game and the goal is simply to continue to play until the other side loses the ability to compete. Wokeness is hurting, wounded, and collapsing under the weight of its own extremism and insanity. They will not be able to stay in the game that much longer. We in the America First movement, on the other hand, must only keep faith and refuse to be defeated. The right has a positive vision of prosperity, opportunity, and hope for the future. The wokies offer only an era of growing poverty, misery, and the ever present fear of being canceled for daring to dissent from the extreme party line. The only way they can prevail is if they have no opposition. That the GOP has won the popular vote in the House of Representatives races is proof of this and a great sign for the future. It is often the case that the Republicans trail the popular vote in the House even when gaining seats.
Don’t let the left demoralize you, don’t let the woke crowd win, don’t give up. As British sailors boarded his ship in 1779 at the height of the American Revolution, John Paul Jones was called upon by the British to surrender. His immortal retort, as much as his unlikely victory, inform us as to how our attitudes should be today: “I have not yet begun to fight!” Let us heed his immortal words and stay in the game. Donald Trump 2024!
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